COP28 Report from Lisa Richmond

How I’m Making Sense of the UN Climate Summit

News reports from the UN climate summits (COPs) tend to be both gloomy and confusing.  But things on the ground can feel quite different, so much so that I decided to write a personal overview of COP28 and what I’m hoping to see.  As you read the headlines and contemplate our changing climate, here are some things to keep in mind.

What is COP?

Part trade show, part high-stakes negotiations, COPs are annual convenings where world leaders attempt to move the needle on climate change.  With more than 90,000 participants registered this year — not just national negotiators but also academics, activists, and civil society representatives — COP is an imperfect but important opportunity to focus global attention on the existential threat of climate change.

Importantly, COPs offer a rare opportunity for developing countries most impacted by climate change to hold to account the high-emitting countries responsible for the bulk of historic emissions.  They provide pregnant opportunity for multilateral agreements on things like climate finance, and elicit voluntary commitments not only from nation states but from private sector actors and philanthropy.

Negotiations are the main event, but so much more happens at COP, much of it tremendously inspiring and hopeful.

Negotiations: Things to watch

The most consequential outcomes of #COP28UAE will largely be negotiated ahead of time, behind closed doors.  Keep an eye on these hot-button issues.

Global Stocktake: Will bad news spur greater ambition?

The #GlobalStocktake (GST) is mandated by the Paris Agreement, requiring the Parties to report progress towards their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).  COP28 is the first mandated GST, and it will drive everything that comes out of the COP process moving forward.

Countries have already submitted their GST reports (you can view the US submission online).  Spoiler alert: the world is woefully off track.   The question is: what are we going to do about it?  The GST should be the “starting bell” for both developed countries and high emitting middle income countries to recalibrate national action to bring ambition in line with climate goals.

In addition, low emitting countries of the Global South will be looking for accountability.  Will those countries most responsible for historic emissions be taking accountability not only for future action but for damage caused by their past actions?  UAE COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber has emerged as a bit of a hero to the Global South for putting that accountability front and center at the negotiating table.

Loss and Damage: A big win for climate justice.

That brings us to #LossAndDamage, a fund to compensate those with the least responsibility for climate change, but suffering the most grievous consequences.  A few short weeks ago, tensions over the lack of progress on a Loss and Damage Fund threatened to derail the whole COP process.

But as COP28 opened, leaders made history.  An agreement was reached on Loss and Damage on opening day, a first for the climate summit.  Success came thanks to surprise consensus in a meeting in Abu Dhabi last month, with three key elements:

Sources.  Wealthy countries (the US in particular) have resisted a fund that puts all the burden on them.  In the consensus agreement, developed countries will continue to take the funding lead with voluntary contributions, but private and philanthropic sources will also contribute.

Hosting.  The World Bank will host the fund, but with some specific conditions. In particular, the fund will be accountable to the COP governance structure instead of World Bank governance.

Eligibility. All developing countries will be eligible for Loss and Damage funds, but there will be specific quotas for small island states and Least Developed Nations (LDCs).

This is a huge win for climate justice, and a shot in the arm for the COP process.  Look for increasing pressure on the US to step up with funds that match those of other developed countries.

Phase-out of fossil fuels: Expect disappointment.

While scientists agree that we must phase out fossil fuels starting immediately, the UAE and other petro-states have argued vehemently for a “phase-down” of “unabated” fossil fuel.  In other words, we can continue to pump and burn oil if it’s offset by carbon removal projects.  Meaningful abatement requires carbon offsets that are additional (beyond what would otherwise occur) and durable, two conditions that are hard to achieve, especially in the absence of feasible and affordable mechanical carbon removal.

The Parties almost certainly will not reach agreement to call for the total phase out of fossil fuels that we need.  That will need to wait for COP29.  In addition, the news that the UAE is using COP as a negotiating ground for fossil fuel expansion threatens to further erode faith in the entire process.

Global target on renewables: Hopeful signs.

We are, however, very likely to come out of COP28 with a global pledge to triple renewal energy capacity by 2030, following a G20 commitment to the same goal.  Notably, the UAE COP Presidency is advocating that renewables be a replacement for current fossil fuel usage, not just a way to meet new energy demand.  Similarly, the United States and China agreed to develop renewables to “accelerate the substitution for coal, oil, and gas generation,” offering another potential wording option.

Global Goal on Adaptation: A mandated outcome.

While adaptation was always part of the Paris Agreement, global progress has taken a backseat to mitigation.  At COP28, the Parties are expected to finally adopt a Global Goal on Adaptation after a two-year evaluation process (the Glasgow – Sharm el-Sheikh Work Program), establishing targets to measure adaptation plus finance needed to get there.  This after the release last year of the Sharm el-Sheikh Adaptation Agenda.  As the impacts of climate change become more visible, expect adaptation to become a bigger part of both negotiations and finance discussions.

Climate Finance: Progress, but not enough.

Solving the climate crisis ultimately hinges on a willingness to pay for it, so climate finance will continue to be a hot button issue at COP28.  After years of failure to fund the Green Climate Fund, developed nations may finally delivered their promised $100 billion in annual climate finance in 2022, according to the OECD.  Unfortunately, that $100 billion is dwarfed by the current estimate of need – $2.4 trillion per year for the next 10 years.  COP28 will include negotiations towards the adoption of a New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance at COP29.  In other words, slow progress.

Carbon markets will be another hot item this year, with an emphasis on creating a global standard for high-quality, durable carbon credits.  While by some estimates carbon markets could cut global emissions in half, existing private markets are riddled with problems, including loose rules, insufficient oversight, and underpricing.  A UN group of experts, working on the issue since 2021, just released its final recommendations, including a definition of removals and monitoring requirements.  The issue will now fall to a small group of negotiators at COP28.

LESSON 1: There Is no single success metric. COP28 results will be a mixed bag.

Action agenda: Things to watch

COP isn’t just about negotiated decisions, however.  It is also a giant implementation conference, with a robust action agenda led by the host country (UAE COP28 Presidency), plus hundreds of sessions for subnational (city and state) government, NGO and private sector actors from across the economy, officially known as Non-Party Stakeholder Engagement. Some priorities of this year’s Action Agenda include:

Private sector leadership

The first-ever Business and Philanthropy Climate Forum will bring together 300+ CEOs and Foundations at COP28. Expect some credible, important commitments from the private sector.  We can also expect to see further reform of multilateral development banks (MDBs) as a powerful lever of climate finance.

Nature

UN Climate Change High-Level Champion of the UAE, Her Excellency Ms. Razan Al Mubarak, is also President of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, meaning that COP28 will have a strong focus on a nature agenda.  We will likely see numerous country-level announcements on forests and nature.

Cities and regions

Four Regional Climate Weeks were held this year to build momentum in COP, and they were by all accounts energetic and productive.  We may see more action at the regional level moving forward.

In addition, this year will host the first-ever Local Climate Action Summit, a parallel summit for subnational (city, state and region) leaders Dec 1-2 focused on integrating global and national climate targets into local policy and planning.  Cities account for 70% of global carbon emissions, so local leadership will be critical in solving our climate crisis.

Accountability

The UAE Presidency has raised accountability as a key concern, including the recent launch of a Net Zero Transition Charter to ensure the credibility and accountability of private-sector net-zero emission pledges.  Dec 4 is also Accountability Day at COP.  But when all commitments are voluntary, accountability is a challenge, and it’s not clear how sincere these conversations are.

LESSON 2: Action Is happening at many levels.

Built Environment @ COP

My role at COP is advocating for the #BuiltEnvironment as a critical part of the climate puzzle.

The built environment has emerged as a key focal area at COP, with hundreds of events focused on buildings transformation, as well as cities and urbanization.  That makes sense, since building operations and construction account for around 40% of global carbon emissions.  Most countries include some type of building strategies in their NDCs (usually energy codes).  The World Green Building Council is calling for these 4 COP28 outcomes:

The Global Stocktake – Parties commit to the Buildings Breakthrough as a platform for collaboration between national governments and stakeholders to accelerate action and optimize the role of buildings in closing the gaps identified in the Global Stocktake.

Climate Mitigation – Parties commit to the integration of building codes, sub-national policy and commitment within their Nationally Determined Contributions, and pledge to double their energy efficiency improvements and triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030.

Climate Adaptation – Parties agree on a Global Goal for Adaptation and recognize the role of buildings in anticipating, adapting and responding to climate impacts and commit to making greater efforts to integrate resilience and adaptation into existing policies and programs, including within the building sector.

My organization, Architecture 2030, is advocating a more expansive, culturally inclusive approach to buildings and climate, with four pillars. We are hosting a dozen presentations and events on green infrastructure, indigenous building principles, building re-use and low-carbon materials.  Learn more here.

LESSON 3: Every sector, every organization and every individual has a role to play in decarbonizing the economy.

Is COP broken?

The frustration with the annual climate negotiation process often leads to a simple question: can it work?  There is a mismatch between the U.N.’s multilateral process, which ensures every country has a say but delivers incremental progress, and the urgency we all feel.  And the fact that COP requires consensus means that anyone can scuttle any agreement at any time.

Yet the COP meetings remain crucial events, particularly for activists and poor countries hit hardest by climate-fueled disasters.  And they are producing results, even if they are slow and incremental.

“What we’ve learned from recent years is that the international process organized under the Paris Agreement is, in fact, working: it has made a demonstrable and significant impact on the overall emissions trajectory,” says Nathan Hultman, the director of the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland, who worked on climate policy in the Obama administration. “This has shown us that the overall structure can work.”

The real engine of change, however, is not an international agreement.  It’s the hundreds of individual nation states, thousands of regional governments, and tens of thousands of NGO and private actors, making critical change across every sector of the economy.  “One of the big values of the U.N. process, actually, is that everybody’s at the table,” says David Waskow, director of the International Climate Initiative at the World Resources Institute.

And it’s going to take everybody to make the changes we need.

LESSON 4: It may feel like digging the Panama Canal with a spoon, but if we all pull out our spoons and get to work, we can do it.

Lisa Richmond, Hon. AIA, is a Strategic Climate Advisor with Climate Strategy Works, a  Senior Fellow of Architecture 2030, Harvard Loeb Fellow, and a Climate Reality Leader