COP28: A Report Card
The negotiators have flown home, the displays are packed, the stages are empty. The largest-ever Conference of the Parties (COP) ended in Dubai with a late-game deal on fossil fuels. But with 100,000 attendees over 10 days, issuing dozens of commitments and agreements, attending hundreds of meetings and presentations, COP28 can’t be boiled down to a single success metric.
My biggest takeaway was an overwhelming appreciation for the people across every sector and from every part of the world and every culture who are dedicated to the common goal of stemming climate change.
-Lori Ferriss, Architecture 2030 delegate
NEGOTIATED DECISIONS
Fossil fuel phase-out: Better than expected but not ideal, the real action starts now.
The final hours of negotiations were a nail-biter. In a flurry of WhatsApp texts, delegates followed along as negotiators spun towards chaos, then rallied for a late-game agreement on critical text of the Global Stocktake Decision, the marquee outcome of COP28. Teams worked through the night, with activists sleeping on sofas and orchestrating protest actions.
COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber gaveled in a final decision almost 24 hours after the scheduled end of negotiations, to a standing ovation and a mix of relief and frustration.
For the first time, the COP explicitly stated the climate change diagnosis: fossil fuels are the problem. While there are glaring caveats and loopholes, and of course the decision is non-binding, that is nonetheless a significant achievement. It’s also worth noting the many non-binding agreements gaining steam: the Powering Past Coal Alliance, the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, the Clean Energy Transition Partnership, and others.
The real work of reducing emissions, however, will be done by nation-states, cities, and the private sector, and that work is advancing with or without the Global Stocktake Decision text. The text calls on all countries to put forward ambitious economy-wide pledges covering all greenhouse gas sources in their next round of Nationally Declared Contributions (NDCs), due in 2025.
“We finally acknowledged fossil fuels” noted Architecture 2030 delegate Julie Hiromoto, “but the consensus language was not urgent enough to equitably keep us within the desired 1.5*C limit.”
Loss and Damage: A big leap, but a funding disappointment
Agreement on setting up the Loss and Damage Fund on Day 1 was a landmark achievement, one that removed an issue that sucked up significant energy at COP27 and threatened to derail COP28. Early pledges, including $100 million each from Germany and UAE, gave the fund legitimacy. That money will be used for disaster recovery and resilience measures (including built environment remedies) that are urgently needed, particularly in small island nations and Least Development Countries (LDCs).
Addressing the damage and suffering already inflicted on vulnerable populations by the climate crisis couldn’t be more urgent. People across the world are already suffering life-and-death consequences of our historic emissions. “In the end, the climate crisis is not about pledges, statistics, reports or activists,” writes activist Vanessa Nkate. “It’s about human suffering and ruined lives.”
Sadly, the pledge from the US, just over $17 million, was wholly inadequate given the scale of our historic carbon emissions.
Global target on renewables: Major achievement, lacking support for a just transition
130 nations signed the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, an agreement to triple renewables and double efficiency in this decade. This is a significant step forward, building on already-considerable momentum for renewables. The inclusion of efficiency is a welcome advance for the buildings sector, where energy efficiency gains have been a signal achievement. But continued failure to address non-debt finance for a just transition in developing nations is a glaring omission that has led to frustration and anger in the Global South. At a climate justice press conference on the final day of negotiations, representatives noted “Without means of implementation and finance we might as well not have text at all.”
Global Goal on Adaptation: We have failed vulnerable countries
COP28 did not make adequate progress on adaptation. The Global Goal on Adaptation, a required outcome for COP28, was watered down, caught up in the whirlwind negotiations around the Global Stocktake. Most detail was punted to national adaptation plans (NAPs).
There was little in the text that compelled developed countries to provide more money to developing countries.
Climate Finance: Kicking the can down the road
As the host of COP30, Brazil has made climate finance reform their top priority. That’s a good thing because COP28 made limited progress on critical questions about how countries will pay for clean energy transition, adaptation and recovery. Issues like the lending policies of multilateral development banks, debt swaps, private finance incentives and carbon markets are where the rubber meets the road on climate progress. Brazil plans to use its platform as President of the G20 in 2024 and COP30 host country in 2025 to bring serious attention to climate finance.
ACTION AGENDA
COP isn’t just about negotiated decisions. It is also a giant implementation conference, with a robust action agenda led by the host country, plus hundreds of sessions for subnational (city and state) government, NGO and private sector actors from across the economy, officially known as Non-Party Stakeholder Engagement. Take-aways from this “Action Agenda” can be substantive and inspiring. “Solving climate change is a poly solution,” says Al Gore, and solutions from every corner of the economy were on display at COP events and pavilions. Noting the ambition of the UAE hosts, former UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres noted, “This Presidency has taken implementation to a whole new level.”
Two COPs, one planet
In her coverage for the New York Times, Somini Sengupta observed, “There are two climate summits taking place in Dubai. One is the gathering of bleary-eyed, sharp-tongued diplomats parsing over every word and comma in the international declaration that is expected in the coming days. But the bigger event is happening outside the negotiating rooms. It’s part trade fair, part protest stage, part debate forum. It’s where people come from all over the world, from all kinds of sectors to show off their gadgets, make deals, spar over big ideas and of course, lobby the diplomats.”
This second COP is at once the most inspiring thing about going, and the most worrying. Harvard’s Robert Stavins calls it “climate expo 2023,” intended as a compliment. UN Climate Champion Nigel Topping calls it “a collaborative effort to find and accelerate the solutions to get to net zero.” The entire global economy is represented in microcosm. This is where, for example, representatives from across the buildings industry come together to raise awareness, explore solutions and make commitments.
At the same time, businesses (including the oil and gas industry) are increasingly using COP as an opportunity for brand positioning and business development, activities that can feel crass and tone-deaf next to the pleas of representatives of island nations facing an existential threat from global warming.
Nature: a big winner
Nature was a big winner of COP28, with significant announcements about conservation finance and nature based solutions. Multiple nature finance and conservation commitments were announced over the course of the 10 days. There was also increased attention on connecting climate negotiations with biodiversity goals. In a first-of-its-kind initiative, the UAE COP28 presidency and China COP15 (biodiversity COP) presidency released a Joint Statement on Climate, Nature and People. Architecture 2030’s focus on nature-based infrastructure solutions for urban environments featured in multiple presentations.
Cities and regions: Increasing recognition
COP28 put unprecedented attention on the role of sub-national governments, which is a great thing. The Local Climate Action Summit brought together local leaders as critical implementation partners. 70 countries endorsed the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP) for Climate Action. Some progress was made to broaden climate finance instruments to include local government action.
New to COP: Health, food, gender
Recognizing that climate progress will be driven by the real economy across sectors and industries, COP28 highlighted new sectors and connections, including the first-ever Health Day, a focus on Gender, and a new action agenda on food systems. New commitments included the COP28 Declaration on Climate and Health and a global commitment from 134 world leaders to account for emissions from food and land use and invest in resilient and sustainable agriculture, the COP28 Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action,
Culture: the Group of Friends of Culture-Based Climate Action
Climate Heritage Network, a coalition of organizations seeking to center culture and heritage in global climate dialogues, had a big win at COP28: the first-ever Ministerial Meeting on Culture and Climate. The outcome: the Group of Friends of Culture-Based Climate Action, co-chaired by Brazil and the UAE, to develop a work plan that recognizes the central role of culture in addressing climate change.
Built Environment: a Buildings Breakthrough
The big news in the buildings sector was the launch of the Buildings Breakthrough, a global push for near-zero emission and resilient buildings by 2030. Sponsored by the Governments of France and Morocco, together with the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), the Buildings Breakthrough will see countries joining forces to accelerate the transformation of the sector.
The Buildings Breakthrough is part of the Breakthrough Agenda, which provides a framework for countries, businesses and civil society to join up and strengthen their actions every year in key emitting sectors, through a coalition of leading public, private and public-private global initiatives.
In March 2024, key stakeholders including Architecture 2030 will hold workshops in Paris to hash out the details of the Breakthrough and its desired commitments and outcomes. Stay tuned for more information coming soon.
Architects and design thinkers solve system challenges every day. We want to be your climate action partners to creatively address the biggest challenges of our time. Don’t wait to engage us only when you need a building. —Julie Hiromoto, HKS