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“The good news is, the train has left the station.
The only question now is, are we on the local or the express?
Our role is to ensure we’re on the express.”
– Edward Mazria
Mission Accomplished?
Not Just Yet, But We Have the Momentum
Each year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes its forecast for U.S. building energy consumption. Since the 2030 Challenge was issued, this outlook has vastly improved.
The following graph shows the EIA's 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2011 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections to the year 2030, clearly illustrating that estimates of residential and commercial building energy use to 2030 have been dropping dramatically since 2005 – by nearly 70% – due to considerable movement within the Building Sector to improve building design and efficiency.
In its most recent estimate, the AEO 2011 forecasts that American consumers will spend $3.66 trillion less on energy between 2012 and 2030 than was originally projected in 2005.
If, by 2030, we embrace the most efficient building technologies available, these savings will top $6 trillion.
In 2005, the AEO forecast an increase in total U.S. building floor area of 51.9% from 2005 to 2030, with energy consumption and CO2 emissions increasing by 44.4% and 53.1% respectively. While the AEO 2011 projects a slightly lower building floor area increase of 38.6% over this same time period, the projected energy consumption and related CO2 emissions from the Building Sector are dramatically less than what was projected in 2005. The Building Sector is becoming less energy and carbon intensive.
If we take advantage of the best available technologies, total U.S. building energy consumption and CO2 emissions in 2030 will be reduced even further, falling well below where they were in 2005.

Improved building design and efficiency has put the 2030 Challenge energy reduction target within reach.
The AEO 2011 projects that the average Primary Energy Use Intensity of the Building Sector will continue to decrease and, in the best available technology case, begin to approach the goal of the 2030 Challenge.
The Building Sector is transforming. The question is, will it transform quickly enough?
In order to adequately address the energy and climate crises, we need to build on our current momentum and re-double our efforts towards meeting the 2030 Challenge targets by:
  • Expanding the AIA+2030 Professional Education Series.
  • Providing access to relevant tools, resources, and information.
  • Generating and adopting advanced building energy codes.
  • Replicating the Seattle 2030 District initiative in cities across the U.S. and around the world.
  • Increasing the number of product manufacturers and specifiers committed to the
    2030 Challenge for Products.

Primary energy consumption is the energy consumed for operating buildings – heating, cooling, lighting, and equipment – including the energy lost in the production and transmission of electricity.
The Expanded Standards and Codes case assumes improvement in appliance and equipment efficiencies and national building energy codes reaching a 30-percent improvement relative to the IECC 2006 for residential households and ASHRAE 90.1-2004 for commercial buildings by 2020 (adoption of the IECC 2012), with additional rounds of 5% improved codes in 2023 and 2026 (see AEO 2011).
The Best Available Technology case limits purchases of new and replacement appliances and future equipment choices to the most efficient available in the year of replacement, and assumes that new home construction adopts the most energy-efficient components for insulation, windows, and space conditioning equipment and commercial buildings incorporate high efficiency of building shells for new and existing buildings (see AEO 2011).
Total current U.S. building stock square footage is 280 billion square feet.
As of AEO 2011, total projected U.S. building stock square footage in the year 2030 is 377 billion square feet, with 62.38% of the building stock either built new or renovated.

AIA+2030 Spreads Across the U.S.

A Major Movement in Seattle

Seattle's 2030 District Launched

Seattle 2030 District Chosen as a Better Buildings Challenge Community Partner

Cleveland Announces Plans for a 2030 District

2030 Challenge for Products Launched

Industry Leaders Rally around the Products Challenge

AIA 2030 Commitment Expanding

IECC 2012 Meets the 2030 Challenge 50% Reduction Target

Federal Building Standards: Carbon Neutral by 2030

Canada Moving the 2030 Targets

Targeting the 2030 Challenge

LEED Pushes Performance

Portland Presents the 2nd 2030 Challenge Design Awards

HKS Holds MEP Consultants to Aggressive Energy Budgets

Ecohome Launches a Roadmap to 2020

Architecture at Zero Winners Announced

ASHRAE Releases New 30/50 Design Guides

Advancing Deep Retrofits

Moving to Net-Zero Energy

. . .

The 2030 Challenge has been adopted by:
American Institute of Architects (AIA)
U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC)
American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE)
American Society of Interior Designers (ASID)
Design Futures Council (DFC)
Congress for the New Urbanism (CNU)
U.S. Conference of Mayors (USCM)
National Association of Counties (NACo)
The U.S. Federal Government and numerous U.S. State and
Local Governments.
Many of the world's top Architecture, Engineering, Planning, and Design Firms
... and many others.

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For the latest updates from Architecture 2030, go to the Hot Topics section of our website.

. . .

Comments and suggestions for future 2030 E–News issues should be sent to:
Architecture 2030
607 Cerrillos Road
Santa Fe, NM 87505

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